JimPinto.com eNews - 10 Oct. 2000
Oct 16, 2000 10:30 am, by Jim Pinto
Subject : Information
from the Automation List dept.
Text :
JimPinto.com eNews is a new-age newsletter, published irreverently and irregularly by Jim Pinto. Business & marketing commentary with new attitudes and no platitudes. We tell it like we see it. No advertising, no fear, no favor. Who's hiring and firing; who is buying up and selling out; who is hot and who is not. Stay e-tuned.... eNews dated 10 Oct 00 is now on the web at : http://www.jimpinto.com/enews/oct10-2000.html Contents: Futurist Movies EBiz - better ways to get personal The Home of the Future Book: Digital Capital - Business Webs Dead horse wisdom Companies in trouble Acquisition buzz - eFeedback I'll appreciate your comments and feedback! Cheers: jim ----------/ Jim Pinto email : jim@jimpinto.com web: www.JimPinto.com San Diego, CA., USA ----------/
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• Re: JimPinto.com eNews - 10 Oct. 2000 - on the web
  Oct 17, 2000 12:40 pm, by Ralph Mackiewicz
  ...snip...snip... > Companies in trouble From the newsletter: > My article was written after the Automation List discussions. I > felt that more people needed to understand the decline, its causes > and the remedies. This article describes the specific situations at > Rockwell, Invensys and Honeywell. And it brings up the specter of > the late-stage sale, at a rock-bottom price, of troubled ICS(UK) > (Max Controls, Triplex, Transmitton). Again the focus is on traditional control system suppliers. Although this particular article deals with "companies" in decline. The earlier posts dealt with the "IA Market" in decline based upon an assumed correlation between the companies and the market. Has anyone seen the numbers on spending (versus sales)? I can't say for certain that such numbers can be produced accurately but this seems to be the more important point. For instance, if the businesses of people like Curt Wuollet of Wide Open Technologies and the thousands of other small integrators are growing as well as companies like SST, Softing, OSI, etc. etc. while the sales at majors is declining, this does not necessarily signal a decline in the IA maket. It could only signal a shift to other ways of doing business that the traditional control system suppliers are not serving. You would never see this trend by examining the declining fortunes of the companies that are ignoring the "new IA market" if, in fact, such a market exists. Measuring the health of the IA market *solely* by the sales (or valuations) of traditional suppliers to that market might actually be analogous to making the claim in the 1920s that the transportation industry was declining because sales of horse drawn wagons was declining. The only true measure of the health of the IA market is the spending by users on equipment (of any kind) and services (of any kind) for IA applications. Regards, Ralph Mackiewicz SISCO, Inc.
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• Re: JimPinto.com eNews - 10 Oct. 2000 - on the web
  Oct 18, 2000 9:50 am, by Jim Pinto
  Ralph Mackiewicz brought up some excellent points : >Again the focus is on traditional control system suppliers. Although >this particular article deals with "companies" in decline. The >earlier posts dealt with the "IA Market" in decline based upon an >assumed correlation between the companies and the market. Jim Pinto responds : Yes, Ralph, you are right! One cannot assume that - just because a few companies (the larger ones) are doing badly, that the whole industry is declining. Indeed, your next point is a *very* (repeat, VERY) good one : Ralph : >Measuring the health of the IA market *solely* by the sales (or >valuations) of traditional suppliers to that market might actually be >analogous to making the claim in the 1920s that the transportation >industry was declining because sales of horse drawn wagons was >declining. Jim : Several people have asked where my data comes from, and how I came to my conclusions. Let's be specific - my information comes from : * Industry reports - such as ARC, AMR, Venture Development, Harbor Research * Financial and investment analysts reports - people who track the industry * New investment by venture capital into factory and process automation * Review of growth record of second-tier companies ($ 100m to $ 500m) * Review of growth record of third-tier companies ($ 25m to $ 100m) * Looking for new start-ups who have grown beyond $ 10-25m in the past 3-5 years I am afraid, that *all* the tiers mentioned are *not* growing. Few (read none) start-ups and/or systems integrators have grown beyond $ 10-25m in the past 5 years. I would welcome suggestions, pointers, indicators, references from anyone on this list who can give specific numbers of companies who have grown beyond $ 10m in the past 5 years, or who are growing consistently at 30-50% per year over the past 5 years. I can think of only one growth company in this arena - National Instruments - and they are from test & measurement (no industrial automation) - though their products do find application in IA, and represent the "new" way of doing things. Software companies like Intellution and Wonderware grew to $ 50-100m in the past, but their growth has stopped in the past 3-5 years. Ralph says : >For instance, if the businesses of people like Curt Wuollet of Wide >Open Technologies and the thousands of other small integrators are >growing as well as companies like SST, Softing, OSI, etc. etc. Jim : I'd like to hear from those companies about their size, and their growth. I think you'll find that they are all below $ 20m, and not growing too much in the present environment. I think we'd all appreciate hearing directly from one or more of them! Ralph concludes : >The only true measure of the health of the IA market is the spending >by users on equipment (of any kind) and services (of any kind) for IA >applications. Jim Pinto : Amen, brother Ralph ! Cheers: jim ----------/ Jim Pinto email : jim@jimpinto.com web: www.JimPinto.com San Diego, CA., USA ----------/
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